Paths to victory remain in the US presidential race for both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, but Biden has more ways to win and appears to be running stronger state-to-state based on the places – cities, mainly – where large absentee votes have yet to be counted.
Biden leads the current electoral tally 238-213. Adding Alaska for Trump – which had not been called but where the result is not in doubt– gives the president 216.
From there, six states remained to be called as Wednesday dawned in the United States: Nevada, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania. A final electoral vote, in the second district of Maine, which splits its electoral votes, could fall for either candidate.
Trump’s paths
The simplest way for Trump to find the 54 electoral votes he needs would be to win Pennsylvania and at least three other states. If he does not win Pennsylvania, Trump must make a clean sweep of all five remaining states to get to 270.
But a huge Democratic vote share remained to be tallied in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, meaning Trump could have difficulty hanging on to a narrow lead gained elsewhere in the state. Elsewhere, including in Wisconsin and Michigan, Trump appeared to be in even deeper trouble, in Wisconsin because he was losing with most of the vote counted, and in Michigan because the outstanding vote was heavily Democratic.
Biden’s paths
Biden had many paths to find his remaining 32 electoral votes. His most likely path lay through the Great Lakes states, where the combination of just Pennsylvania and Michigan would net 36 votes. Lacking Pennsylvania, Biden could win by holding down Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, where he held a clear but narrow lead. A Biden victory in either of the two reddest states in the mix – Georgia or North Carolina – would almost certainly foretell wins elsewhere and a Biden victory.
